Daily corona round-up

Mixed signals

We’re seeing a dip in discovered cases in North Carolina, four days into Phase 1, but an increase in deaths, an increase in recoveries and an overall increase in testing. This means, in my measured opinion, that we may be nearing the end of the beginning. North Carolina’s chart follows a national trend that — dare I say it? — looks like a plateau in declination.

But cases are increasing in California, Alabama, Washington state and a few others that are taking it in larger waves.

Of course, the effects of loosening regulations in NC won’t properly drop until tomorrow — Day 5 in the coronavirus gestation period, when symptoms start to make themselves known.

Meanwhile Durham will extend its stay-at-home order, set to expire Friday, that supersedes state orders with an announcement coming this week as to the final day. Los Angeles County in California will likely extend its stay-at-home order until August. All 23 campuses of the Cal State system canceled most in-person classes for the fall 2020 semester. And some sheriffs in Michigan have already declared they will defy Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s extension of stay-at-home orders through May 28.

Speaking today before the Senate, comely virologist Dr. Anthony Fauci and other members of the coronavirus response team said that we are “not out of the woods.”

And Reopen NC protestors in Raleigh today floated their platform, which included personally thanking people who don’t wear masks.

Some local news

  • The NC DHHS theorizes that recovery time for non-fatal cases of COVID-19 is about two weeks for people who are not hospitalized. Severe or critical cases run three to six weeks.
  • Harris Teeter has opened free drive-thru COVID-19 testing stations in some NC parking lots. Find out more here.
  • Cone Health facilities are once again open for non-essential medical procedures.
  • “Hundreds” of inmates in NC jails have recovered from COVID-19. Of 642 cases, 500 have recovered. Let’s talk more about these numbers.

The numbers

  • The big news in NC is the massive spike in recoveries today — we added 6,689 so far, out. of 9,115 total. But this can be explained by the way these numbers get compiled. This same document that claims a 14-day recovery was used to estimate how many recoveries we’ve had thus far, as the stat was not being uniformly kept. It is possible we are caught up now.
    • We also added 21 new deaths today, according to this one. With 596 cumulative deaths and this jump in recoveries, this gives us 5,879 active cases. A huge statistical correction.
  • But hey, check out Forsyth County, where 50 new cases have been discovered, for 345 active cases.
  • Guilford County, which added 49 cases yesterday, adds just eight today for 649, which combined with its 42 deaths and 294 recoveries, leaves 313 active cases, 37 of them hospitalized.

A diversion

Joseph Heller’s 1961 novel Catch 22 gave us the ultimate expression to describe the condition of complete, organized disarray — Like “MASH” with a darker edge. The 1970 film is genius, starring 1970s luminaries Alan Arkin, Richard Benjamin, Bob Newhart, Normal Fell, Buck Henry, Charles Grodin, Paula Prentiss, Martin Sheen, Anthony Perkins, Orson Welles and Art Garfunkel. This is a terrible recording of it, but it’s totally worth a watch.

Program Notes

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