We’ve discussed in this space the anti-democratic Congressional maps put forth by the North Carolina Legislature. Those new maps result in 10 Republican districts and three earmarked for Democrats plus one toss-up, even though there are more registered Democrats, 2.4 million, than registered Republicans, 2.2 million, in NC.
They break Guilford County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a factor of almost 2-to-1, into three Republican-leaning districts, the 5th (R+8), the 6th (R+9) and the 9th (R+8). Forsyth is part of the 6th District and also the 10th (R+9). In Forsyth, registered Dems outnumber Rs by almost 27,000 voters.
The Senate map cuts Guilford County into three districts: 26, 27 and 28. District 26, which includes all of Rockingham County and the parts of Guilford which are neither Greensboro nor High Point, is R+8. Districts 27, western Greensboro and High Point, is D+10. District 28, the eastern half of Greensboro, is D+27.
All in all, the map divides 50 Senate seats into 19 safe Republican districts and 16 safe Democrat districts, with nine more likely going to Republicans, one probably going to Democrats and five toss-ups. It takes 30 seats to attain a supermajority.
The new NC House map shows less constraint.
In it, Guilford holds the entirety of six different districts: 51 (R+9), 57 (D+18), 58 (D+28), 59 (R+5), 60 (D+15) and 62 (R+4) to give this blue, Quaker-founded county three Republicans and three Democrats to represent us in the House.
Forsyth County becomes divided by five different districts, designed to result in a 3-2 Republican majority. Winston-Salem is covered by District 71 (D+20) and 72 (D+24). District 74, on the west side of Forsyth, is R+5; on the east, District 75 is R+6. District 91, R+14, packs a chunk of north-central Forsyth with all of Stokes County.
These thin margins matter. A party needs to capture 72 of 120 House seats to attain supermajority, which enables veto overrides, bully pulpits and other tools of minority rule.
Something else to remember as the election draws closer: These numbers assume baseline voter turnout. If everyone in Guilford and Forsyth shows up to vote, all bets are off.
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